Equity Research

Equity Research

Wednesday, 08 May 2019 10:40

PDB RI 2019 

PDB RI 1Q19 tumbuh 5,07% YoY

 

PDB RI tumbuh 5,07% YoY di 1Q19

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) RI pada 1Q19 tumbuh sebesar 5,07% YoY mencapai senilai Rp2.625 triliun yang ditopang oleh tingginya pertumbuhan sector informas dan komunikasi (+9,03% YoY);pengadaan air pengelolaan sampah, limbah & daur ulang (+8,9% YoY); kesehatan (+8,6% YoY); jasa keuangan dan asuransi (+7,3% YoY); konstruksi (+5,9% YoY);akumodasi & makan minum (+5,9% YoY) dan pendidikan (+5,6% YoY). Pencapaian pertumbuhan PDB RI di 1Q19 tersebut cenderung stagnan bila dibandingkan dengan realisasi pertumbuhan PDB RI 1Q18 yang tercatat sebesar 5,06% YoY.Sementara itu, pertumbuhan PDB RI 1Q19 tersebut masih berada di bawah consensus ekonom yang mengekspektasikan pertumbuhan PDB RI 1Q19 sebesar 5,19% YoY.

 

Belanja konsumsi rumah tangga dominasi PDB RI 2018

Berdasarkan klasifikasi pengeluaran, belanja konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi barang modal di 1Q19 masing-masing tercatat mencapai senilai Rp1.442triliun (+5,01% YoY) dan Rp862 triliun (+5,03% YoY) ditopang oleh kuatnya daya beli masyarakat (yang tercermin dari rendahnya inflasi) dan didukung oleh pembangunan proyek infrastruktur yang tengah berjalan. Realisasi belanja konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi barang modal tersebut memberikan kontribusi masing-masing sebesar 55% dan 33% terhadap total PDB RI 1Q19. Namun demikian, kami mencatat bahwa pertumbuhan belanja investasi barang modal 1Q19 lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan realisasi pertumbuhan belanja investasi barang modal di 1Q18 (+7,9% YoY) yang dikontribusikan dari adanya factor Pilpres 2019 sehingga mendorong investor lebih bersikap wait & see dan adanya kekhawatiran melambatnya laju ekonomi global.

 

PDB RI 1Q19 mengalami kontraksi 0,52% QoQ

Pada periode kuartalan, PDB RI di 1Q19 tercatat mengalami penurunan sebesar0,52% QoQ yang disebabkan oleh 1)relative rendahnya belanja konsumsi Pemerintah di 1Q19 (tercatat turun signifikan 45,8% QoQ); 2) turunnya belanja investasi barang modal sebesar 5,7% QoQ akibat sikap wait & see investor terkait factor Pilpres 2019 dan 3) turunnya kinerja ekspor RI di 1Q19 (-10,2% QoQ) seiring dengan trenkoreksi harga komoditas dunia seiring dengan melemahnya permintaan akibat perlambatan eknomi global.  

 

PDB RI 2019 kami proyeksikan tumbuh 5,2% YoY

Kami memproyeksikan pertumbuhan PDB RI tahun ini sebesar 5,2% YoY cenderung flat dengan realisasi pertumbuhan PDB RI 2018 dan lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan asumsi pertumbuhan PDB RI dalam APBN 2019 yang sebesar 5,3% YoY. Hal ini dipicu oleh outlook perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global terutama timbul dari kekhawatiran tensi perang dagang antara AS-Tiongkok dan rencana penaikan suku bunga FFR 2019 diekspektasikan tidak seagresif tahun lalu. Karenanya, kami melihat bahwa belanja investasi barang modal dan konsumsi rumah tangga yang solid kami harapkan dapat menyokong tercapainya target pertumbuhan PDB RI tahun ini yang didukung oleh ekspansifnya pembangunan proyek infrastruktur dan cenderung kuatnya daya beli masyarakat ditengah momen tahun politik. Katalis kunci bagi ekonomi RI adalah turunnya harga minyak dunia dapat mendukung terjadinya perbaikan deficit neraca perdagangan dan transaksi berjalan serta mendongkar daya beli masyarakat pada tahun ini.

 

RingkasanEkonomiMakro

Periode

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019P

PDB

4,79%

5,03%

5,07%

5,17%

5,20%

Rupiah/US$ (Rp)

13.855

13.436

13.555

14.481

15.000

BI 7-day RRR (%)

-

4,75

4,25

6,00

6,50

Inflasi (%)

3,35

3,02

3,61

3,13

3,50

CA/PDB (%)

(2,06)

(1,80)

(1,70)

(2,98)

(2,50)

CadanganDevisa (US$ juta)

105.931

116.362

130.196

120.654

126,687

Equity Research

Wednesday, 08 May 2019 11:34

PT WIJAYA KARYA BETON TBK 

1Q19 Seasonal Below Expectation – Still A Good Result

 

WTON 1Q19 revenue and net profit only covered by 16% and 13% to our 2019 forecast which was caused by low infrastructure spending realization, 1Q19 new contract decline of 5.2% YoY and 2019 Election effect. However, the company was still able to record a good performance in 1Q19, in which the revenue and net profit increased by 8.4% YoY and 22.8% YoY, respectively. The 1Q19 gross and operating margins increased by 93 bps became to 12.4% and to 9.9%, respectively, thanks to one-stop solution of precast concrete business strategy and cost efficiency initiative.Although the recent share price increased by 48% YTD 2019 and still trading below its 5 years average fwd PER band of 15.47x, therefore, we maintain our BUY rating.

 

1Q19 Below expectation due seasonal factor but still recorded a good result

WTON’s 1Q19 revenue and net profit came below expectation which only covered by 16% and 13% to our 2019F of Rp 7.9 trillion in revenue and Rp 530 billion in net profit. This was entirely caused by 1) a seasonal factor as a result of low infrastructure spending realization; 2) 1Q19 new contract decline of 5.2% YoY due to the delay in the tender of infrastructure projects and 3) 2019 Election effect. However, we note that the company was still able to record a good performance in 1Q19, in which the revenue and net profit increased by 8.4% YoY and 22.8% YoY attained to Rp 1.29 trillion (vs Rp 1.19 trillion in 1Q18) and to Rp 71 billion (vs Rp 58 billion in 1Q18), respectively.

 

Profitability continued to increase driven by one-stop solution and cost efficiency

On the profitability side, the company managed to improve its profitability thanks to 1) one-stop solution of precast concrete business strategy (i.e.: precast sales and installation services) and 2) cost efficiency initiative, mainly in material (-24.3% YoY) and direct labour (-73.3% YoY) expenses. We note that the 1Q19 gross and operating margins increased by 93 bps became to 12.4% (vs 11.5% in 1Q18) and to 9.9% (vs 9.0% in 1Q18), respectively. Meanwhile, WTON’s net margin also increased by 64 bps from 4.8% to 5.5% during the same period driven by gain on forex of Rp 1.1 billion (vs loss on forex of Rp 160 million in 1Q18) and higher interest income of 63.1% YoY.

 

Keep BUY rating with TP Rp 830/share

Recently, the share price has increasedby 48% YTD 2019and still trading at 9.12x PER 2019F which is still translated into a very attractive valuation, below its 5 years average fwd PER band of 15.47x, while our fair value offer 50% upside potential. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating on the counter.

 

The Risk:1) delays in infrastructure projects; 2) rising raw material prices; 3) weakening Rupiah currency; 3) delays in production capacity expansions; 4) contingencies from being labour?intensive; and 5) increasing competition.

 

 

 

Financial Summary

 (Rp billion)

2017A

2018A

2019F

2020F

2021F

 Revenue

5,362

6,931

7,858

9,440

11,144

 EBITDA

709

959

1,035

1,253

1,487

 Net profit

337

486

530

671

824

 EPS (Rp)

39

56

61

77

94

 PER (x)

14.35

9.95

9.12

7.21

5.87

 BVPS (Rp)

307

352

396

454

526

 PBV (x)

1.81

1.58

1.40

1.22

1.06

 EV/EBITDA (x)

7.96

5.66

5.98

5.06

4.43

 Dividend yield (%)

2.19

3.02

3.29

4.16

5.11

 RoE (%)

13.22

16.94

16.28

18.10

19.28

Source: Company data and Lotus Andalan  Research